在中东冲突升级的背景下，WTI原油期货价格微幅波动，并最终稳定在每桶约68美元附近，其走势与股市同步变化。当天交易波澜起伏，投资者正评估以色列对真主党的打击是否会扩大中东地区的冲突规模。
美国股市回撤后，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示他并无急于降低利率的打算。与此同时，以色列首次在近一年的黎巴嫩冲突中直接瞄准贝鲁特，这是在上周伊朗支持的该组织负责人遇害之后。一名美国官员透露，拜登政府已指示以色列实施针对清除真主党基础设施的有限且有针对性的攻击。
然而，中东——为全球石油供应提供约三分之一份额的关键地区，局势升级并未能显著影响原油价格走向。这个季度内，油价下跌了大约16%，主要原因是市场对需求疲软及OPEC和非成员国增产的预期感到担忧。
“当前环境下，评估价格走势方向有难度。”Global X管理公司国际业务发展与企业战略负责人表示，“在上周OPEC可能放弃其目标价格的消息与中东地区的地缘政治冲突共存的情况下。”
生产方面，全球供应充足。部分国家计划解除产量限制，且下周将召开的OPEC会议旨在评估全球市场动态，并有代表暗示目前暂无政策调整计划。
利比亚的一些油田因东部政府的禁令而停产或减产的情况预计将在下周开始恢复产出。了解情况的人士透露，战事爆发近一年来，市场对可能出现实质性供应中断一直保持警觉，尤其是在以色列与伊朗之间关系紧张的时候。
尽管红海的某些油轮因为航道变更需绕行南非，导致航程延长，但该地区的原油生产并未受到影响。RBC Capital Markets LLC的分析师们指出，鉴于目前还没有重大的实际供应中断情况出现，且伊朗没有展现出介入这场持续近一年冲突的意愿，一些市场参与者可能会忽视这次紧张升级。
然而，“我们很难预测这一地区冲突的发展前景。”分析家写道，“这是否预示着冲突开始结束，还是只是刚刚拉开序幕？”为了让《彭博》时事通讯进入您的邮箱，请点击此处订阅。
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：Latest Oil Market News and Analysis for Sept. 30
新闻日期：2024-09-30
原文摘要：
closed little changed after a day of choppy trading as investors assessed the risks that Israel’s recent strikes against Hezbollah will widen the conflict in the Middle East.West Texas Intermediate settled near $68 a barrel after swinging in a range of about $1.75 a barrel, largely tracking moves in equities. US stocks retreated after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell he was in no hurry to cut interest rates.Israel the center of Beirut for the first time in almost a year of hostilities with Lebanon’s Hezbollah, days after the killing of the Iran-backed group’s chief last week. According to a US official, the Biden administration Israel to conduct limited, targeted attacks focused on clearing Hezbollah’s infrastructure from the Lebanon-Israel border.Still, the recent escalations in the conflict in the Middle East — a region that supplies about a third of the world’s oil — have done little to shake crude from its recent slump. Crude slumped about 16% this quarter, driven by the prospect of tepid demand and production increases from both OPEC and non-member nations.“Between last week’s OPEC news about potentially abandoning its price goals and the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, there’s a difficulty in assessing direction to price at the moment,” said , head of international business development & corporate strategy at Global X Management.Global production remains ample, with planning to relax output curbs. The producer group will meet to assess global markets this week, with several delegates there are currently no plans to make changes to policy. Meanwhile, Libyan oil fields that were were halted or curtailed by an eastern government ban are expected to start restoring output on people with knowledge of the matter said.Since the outbreak of the war in Gaza almost a year ago, oil traders have been been on alert for actual disruptions to supply, especially at times of heightened friction between Israel and Iran. While in the Red Sea have forced some tankers to go around southern Africa — lengthening voyages — crude output from the region has been largely unscathed.“Some oil market participants will look past this escalation given that there still has not been a major physical supply disruption and Iran has not demonstrated any appetite to enter this nearly yearlong conflict,” RBC Capital Markets LLC analysts including said in a note. “And yet, it is extremely difficult to see where this regional conflict is headed, and whether this is the beginning of the end, or the end of the beginning.”To get Bloomberg’s newsletter into your inbox, click .
